- \n
- Average tariffs announced: 18.3%, weighted by imports, but the actual increase in the tariff rate would be more like 12.6 percentage points, due to expected exemptions for about USD 1 trillion of imports (1\/3 of the total), including:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
o USMCA compliant products (minimum local content)<\/p>\n\n
o Products under SEC investigation (copper, wood, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals)<\/p>\n\n
o Energy products<\/p>\n\n
o Products with at least 20% US content<\/p>\n\n
- \n
- Second wave of tariffs planned for April 9:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
o Tariffs proportional to the bilateral trade deficit<\/p>\n\n
o Possible increases of up to 45% for countries like Vietnam<\/p>\n\n
o Possible introduction of a floor rate of 10%<\/p>\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-25.png\")
<\/figure>\n\nOur reading of the situation:<\/h3>\n\n
Yesterday’s announcements do not mark the end of this protectionist streak. On the contrary, they <\/p>\n\n
open the way to more intense bilateral negotiations with the United States.<\/p>\n\n
So, it is not so much the level of tariffs (10% or 20%) that matters, but who will be able to afford them.<\/p>\n\n
renegotiate downwards and how long it will take.<\/p>\n\n
In the event of a sell-off, we believe that it would be primarily a buying opportunity – both for technical reasons specific to the bond market, as discussed below, but also because all the analyses converge towards the same idea: none of this appears structurally sustainable.<\/p>\n\n
\u201cThe real pain of this event will be the breakdown of the capital flow agreement we had with the rest of the world,\u201d Blitz said. \u201cThis idea that you can break trade, but not break the flow of capital, is a fantasy.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
What consequences?<\/h3>\n\n
Against this backdrop, global investors have turned away from risk, triggering a weekly rally of around 30 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury and 13 basis points in the German Bund.<\/p>\n\n
Commodities, including oil, also reacted negatively due to a significant<\/p>\n\n
adjustment of global growth expectations.<\/p>\n\n
What risks and what responses?<\/h3>\n\n
As always in bond management, we believe it is essential to clearly distinguish between<\/p>\n\n
different types of risk:<\/p>\n\n
- \n
- first, credit risk, that is, the ability of a company to honor its debt (solvency);<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
- \n
- then, the liquidity risk, which may appear if a company has to refinance itself on a market in \u201crisk-off\u201d mode, with temporarily restricted access;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- finally, the risk of price volatility (mark-to-market), linked to a generalized repricing of the price of risk, without a direct link to the credit quality of issuers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
Credit risk: limited impact at this stage<\/h3>\n\n
On the one hand, from a macroeconomic point of view, we note that this new round of tariffs is not specifically directed against emerging countries, but has a global scope.<\/p>\n\n
More specifically, we note that the two regions most impacted by Washington’s tariff policies are Asia and the European Union \u2013 two geographical areas where we ultimately do not have significant exposure in our portfolios \u2013 and that Latin America and the Africa-Middle East region, which represent more than three-quarters of the exposure of our bond portfolio, seem less targeted by the American administration.<\/p>\n\n
Let us also remember that, in most emerging countries, the United States’ trade hegemony is not as strong as it was or could be today with developed countries. China’s share of emerging country exports has increased considerably at the expense of that of the United States (with a few exceptions such as Mexico). <\/p>\n\n
On the other hand, from the perspective of emerging companies’ direct credit exposure to customs tariffs, it must first be said that the proportion of companies immediately affected by customs duties is very low. According to JP Morgan, only 28% of companies in the CEMBI BD (emerging companies index) would be significantly affected, and 60% would only experience a minimal direct impact. <\/p>\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-24.png\")
<\/figure>\n\nFurthermore, let us recall that the balance sheets of emerging companies are in a rather solid starting position, and that the highly diversified universe of more than 60 countries and 13 sectors constitutes an asset in terms of diversification and decorrelation for credit investors looking for idiosyncratic drivers.<\/p>\n\n
Indeed, the financial strength of issuers is the central element of the investment thesis on the asset class. The consequences related to tariffs, whether direct or indirect, do not call into question the ability of companies to honor their debt. In the event of a shock, shareholders will first bear the impact, via a potential revision of profit trajectories and valuation multiples. Second, solid margins and moderate debt levels will allow companies to face headwinds. Only as a last resort, and in extreme cases, could these tensions become a solvency issue. At this stage, we do not anticipate such a scenario. <\/p>\n\n
The companies in our portfolio have moderate debt levels and a solid ability to absorb rising costs, thanks to high operating margins. This structural advantage is crucial during a downturn. If the macroeconomic environment were to deteriorate, we believe that emerging market companies are, overall, better positioned to cope than previously thought. <\/p>\n\n
Net debt leverage of HY issuers (Source JP Morgan)<\/h3>\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-23.png\")
<\/figure>\n\nDebt service (Ebitda \/ Interest) of EM Corporates (Source JP Morgan)<\/h3>\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-22.png\")
<\/figure>\n\nLiquidity risk: limited impact, as so-called “refinancing” securities<\/strong> are not a central part of our portfolio. We favor issuers with controlled maturities that do not depend on immediate market access to ensure their operational continuity. <\/p>\n\n
Volatility risk<\/strong> (mark-to-market): a matter of sentiment rather than fundamentals in our case.<\/p>\n\n
Current volatility may lead to a temporary widening of spreads, which does not reflect a risk of bankruptcy, but rather a general repricing of the price of risk. This phenomenon could have cascading effects, starting with the US high-yield segment, but also on commodity prices and the sovereign spreads of countries most vulnerable to a revision in global growth. In several cases, fiscal trajectories previously deemed acceptable thanks to robust growth could be reconsidered if this dynamic were to reverse. <\/p>\n\n
As a long-only fund, we cannot completely neutralize mark-to-market risk, just as no active strategy can claim to generate alpha sustainably without assuming some risk.<\/p>\n\n
As mentioned above, we believe we are not exposed to significant credit risks, either in terms of solvency or liquidity \u2013 thanks to the rigor of our investment universe. However, we are not immune to an adjustment in valuation levels, which could either be temporary (if risk or market sentiment normalizes), or, to a lesser extent, remain more lasting (pricing a new risk environment). <\/p>\n\n
This risk of price volatility must be placed within the logic specific to the bond market: in the absence of a concrete increase in the risk of default, any fall in price must be perceived as a buying opportunity, the bond having what one could call “the elastic of return to par”, that is to say a natural vocation to return to its redemption value at maturity.<\/p>\n\n
We have fully integrated this mark-to-market risk into our portfolio construction for several months, as we reiterated in our recent presentations of our Outlook 2025. As a result, we have adapted our positioning, strengthening credit quality, reducing duration, increasing our cash pool and further diversifying our exposures. <\/p>\n\n
Our current positioning is defensive but opportunistic, with:<\/p>\n\n
- \n
- A reduction in B-rated exposures, in favor of BB ratings<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- A reduction in duration on the IVO EMCD (from 4.5 to ~3.7 today)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- A comfortable liquidity pocket (around 8% today)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Increased country diversification<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Maintaining a high carry on the bond portfolio (more than 9% in USD as of 3\/4\/2025), a real volatility buffer<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
Let’s add another important piece of context regarding mark-to-market risk in 2025: The \u201cUS Treasury interest rate\u201d component embedded in our bonds.<\/p>\n\n
Indeed, as our securities are denominated in USD (with full hedging of exchange rate risk for investors in euros), their return is made up of:<\/p>\n\n
- \n
- the yield of US Treasuries (risk-free rate),<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- the sovereign spread of the issuer’s country of domicile,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- and, in the majority of cases, a corporate spread (often called spread-to-sovereign<\/em> ).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
This Treasury component, currently high (around 4% on 5-year maturities), plays an important role in the resilience of the portfolio in the face of possible price volatility:<\/p>\n\n
- \n
- Macroeconomic shock absorber effect: The recent shift in the narrative on global growth (with increased fears of a slowdown) is leading to a decline in US rates, which offsets concerns about inflation and tariffs. Unlike the 2008\u20132022 period, when bonds were mostly priced in spreads (without any real interest rate component), the current presence of a genuine bond base in \u201crisk-free\u201d rates restores the bond product\u2019s role as a hedge and macro stabilizer. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Effect on total return: This Treasury component mechanically contributes to increasing the overall return of our bond portfolios. However, as is often pointed out, the best volatility buffer in a bond portfolio remains carry. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
Regional zoom:<\/h3>\n\n
Asia:<\/strong> We have limited exposure to the region (7.7% of the portfolio), mainly in India, with only 1.2% in China (on very specific investment theses). Historically, Asian countries have largely relied on a protectionist and export-oriented model, generating large trade surpluses with the United States. The most exposed to these new tariffs are Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea (where we have no exposure), as their exports represent between 40% and 83% of GDP, with the United States purchasing up to 30% of their production. Conversely, Indonesia, India and China have economies more focused on domestic demand (only 10-15% of GDP linked to foreign trade) and should therefore be less directly affected. <\/p>\n\n
Latin America<\/strong> : Our flagship strategy is 47% exposed to Latin American credits. Trump’s tariff announcements are relatively benign for the region: USMCA-compliant exports are exempt, and the rest of Latin America is affected by a tariff limited to 10%. On net, we view this development as slightly positive in relative terms for Brazil and Mexico. Within the region, Chile and Peru are more vulnerable due to their commodity exports to China (primarily copper), but we have no exposure to mining companies in the region, and very little exposure to Chile and Peru. Moreover, given the moderation of tariffs for Latin America, the risks of retaliation also appear limited. <\/p>\n\n
Energy Sector Exposure:<\/strong> Our flagship strategy has a 20.3% exposure (as of March 31, 2025) to oil and gas credits. We note that energy products are excluded from recent price announcements. However, the downward revision of the global growth outlook will have a negative impact on oil demand. Specifically, we estimate that global oil demand could be 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day lower in 2025 compared to a projected growth of 1.2 million barrels per day, which would put downward pressure on oil prices in the short term. <\/p>\n\n
In this context, we believe that the IVO EMCD portfolio will remain fundamentally resilient from a credit perspective, even if we observe a negative mark-to-market impact on this oil-exposed energy pocket.<\/p>\n\n
Note that nearly 12% of our 20% exposure to the energy sector is mitigated by credits benefiting from:<\/p>\n\n
- \n
- long-term fixed-price contracts,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- activities in oil services with medium-term contracts (less sensitive to variations in crude oil prices),<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- or links with sovereign theses, rather than directly with the volatility of the price of oil.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
For the remaining 8% of the portfolio, more directly exposed to oil price volatility, we favor defensive issuers with solid fundamentals, low production costs, and the ability to generate cash flows throughout the cycle.<\/p>\n\n
Although this segment is likely to experience mark-to-market volatility, we are convinced that the fundamental quality of issuers will limit credit risk. This conviction is based in particular on our experience during the oil counter-shock of April 2020, a period during which Brent reached record lows (as low as $20 compared to around $70 today), as well as the recovery period that followed. <\/p>\n\n
Conclusion: Active caution and search for opportunities<\/h2>\n\n
We remain vigilant regarding possible generalized “risk-off” type chain reactions. However, in the bond universe, any drop in prices \u2013 in the absence of an increase in the risk of default \u2013 must be seen as a buying opportunity: the bond has what could be called “the elastic of return to par”, that is to say a natural vocation to return to its redemption value at maturity. <\/p>\n\n
Bonds, unlike stocks, are not dependent on uncontrollable external factors that can permanently affect prices. Their defined maturity and contractual redemption value make them a unique asset to hold when the market offers them at discounted prices. <\/p>\n\n
With this in mind:<\/h3>\n\n
- \n
- We remain attentive to the market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- We are considering strengthening our cash position by selling certain resilient lines, to be able to reposition ourselves quickly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Without being an absolute return fund using derivatives, our objective remains to protect relative performance in times of stress, by arbitrating the most resilient positions towards those temporarily affected by the sell-off.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
Our portfolio is structured to weather the turbulence with prudence and resilience. To date, fundamentals remain strong, and our geographic and qualitative positioning constitutes an asset in this new market regime. <\/p>\n\n
We thank you for your renewed trust and remain at your disposal for any discussion.<\/p>\n\n
IVO TEAM<\/em><\/p>\n\n
DISCLAIMER THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL ADVICE:<\/h2>\n\n
The information communicated reflects the opinion of IVO Capital Partners as of the date of this publication. The information contained in this document is not intended to be understood or interpreted as financial advice. It has been shared solely for informational purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and should not be construed as a solicitation, offer, invitation, or inducement to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. CONFIDENTIALITY: The information is strictly confidential and may not be reproduced, redistributed, disclosed, or transmitted to any other person, directly or indirectly. You may not copy, reproduce, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit any such content, nor distribute any part of this content over any network, including a local area network, sell or offer it for sale, or use this content to build any type of database. <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dear investors, Recent developments related to the Trump administration’s implementation of new tariffs have reignited trade tensions and heightened market uncertainty. This situation is fueling questions about the trajectory of global growth, the risk of recession in the United States, and future inflationary dynamics, with mixed effects on US interest rates. Here we would like […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6417,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[103],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pointsofview"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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This situation is fueling questions about the trajectory of global growth, the risk of recession in the United States, and future inflationary dynamics, with mixed effects on US interest rates. Here we would like […]","og_url":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2025\/04\/03\/information-note-april-3-2025\/","og_site_name":"IVO Capital Partners","article_published_time":"2025-04-03T13:40:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-11-06T13:49:04+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":673,"url":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dollar.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"IVO Capital Partners","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"IVO Capital Partners","Est. reading time":"12 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2025\/04\/03\/information-note-april-3-2025\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2025\/04\/03\/information-note-april-3-2025\/"},"author":{"name":"IVO Capital Partners","@id":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/9ac5c6465a76c070216646f0ec0fbcb4"},"headline":"Information note \u2013 April 3, 2025","datePublished":"2025-04-03T13:40:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-06T13:49:04+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2025\/04\/03\/information-note-april-3-2025\/"},"wordCount":2344,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/es\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2025\/04\/03\/information-note-april-3-2025\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dollar.jpg","articleSection":["Investment Insights"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2025\/04\/03\/information-note-april-3-2025\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2025\/04\/03\/information-note-april-3-2025\/","url":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2025\/04\/03\/information-note-april-3-2025\/","name":"Information note \u2013 April 3, 2025 - 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- first, credit risk, that is, the ability of a company to honor its debt (solvency);<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
- Second wave of tariffs planned for April 9:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n