{"id":8890,"date":"2026-03-05T15:50:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T15:50:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/2026\/03\/05\/the-donroe-doctrine-towards-a-new-cartography-of-latin-america\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T13:25:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:25:21","slug":"the-donroe-doctrine-towards-a-new-cartography-of-latin-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2026\/03\/05\/the-donroe-doctrine-towards-a-new-cartography-of-latin-america\/","title":{"rendered":"The &#8220;Donroe Doctrine&#8221;: towards a new cartography of Latin America?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Executive Summary<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>A more interventionist and unilateral U.S. foreign policy is reshaping Latin America\u2019s geopolitical and economic backdrop.<\/strong> The Donroe Doctrine uses tariffs, sanctions, and selective interventions to counter rival powers and secure strategic resources. It increases geopolitical noise and idiosyncratic risk, which in turn can reinforces the rotation from U.S. exposure into EM assets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regional dispersion is widening as countries absorb U.S. pressure differently.<\/strong> Venezuela remains the most direct intervention, while Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico face selective friction. The particularities of each country generate differentiated sovereign and corporate risk profiles and opportunities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>For investors, this backdrop can create both volatility and opportunities across EM credits.<\/strong> EM FX strength supports healthy EM growth and investment, while geopolitical episodes can drive spread dispersion. Distressed situations like Venezuela provide optionality, whereas more liquid markets such as Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, may offer attractive entry points following geopolitically driven volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><strong>Global fixed income investors question the appeal of US bonds as sources of stability and continue to increasingly look for diversification opportunities particularly within Emerging Markets as evidences by strong inflows into the asset class<\/strong><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Background<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initially branded the \u201cTrump Corollary,\u201d the administration later adopted the term \u201cDonroe Doctrine\u201d coined by the press. Predicated on \u201cAmerica First\u201d principles, Donroe seeks to prevent economic and political influence from other global powers\u2014particularly China, Russia, and Iran. The policy leverages economic mechanisms to shape political outcomes, advance government and corporate interests, and secure access to strategically important locations..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Interventions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The National Security Strategy emphasized that the U.S. \u201ccannot afford to be equally attentive to every region and every problem in the world\u201d and brought the Americas to the forefront. It seeks to enlist regional players, advancing shared interests and rewarding aligned governments, parties and movements; and expand new relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While strategic pillars were voiced during the campaign, the first tangible actions came in 2025 with tariffs and sanctions, and surged by military campaigns in Venezuela. These events exemplify some of the levers of U.S. action within the spectrum of this policy, implemented in the name of commercial, immigration, and defense interests. Beyond potential escalation, unpredictability in timing and scope alone increases geopolitical noise and investment risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Venezuela<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nicol\u00e1s Maduro led a longstanding authoritarian regime and refused to negotiate with the White House. Motivated by the fighting drug trafficking, the U.S. launched a military operation to capture him, now awaiting trial in Brooklyn jail. Efforts then shifted to stabilizing a regime led by Delcy Rodr\u00edguez, who has cooperated to advance U.S. interests. The market participants believe that Venezuela\u2019s large oil reserves (world\u2019s largest proven oil reserves, over 303 million barrels, source EIA) and other resources are central to establishing \u201ccloser collaboration between the U.S. Government and the American private sector\u201d across the continent. Both parties now work to create assurances for long-term investments in outdated infrastructure to extract heavy crude oil. The intervention also targeted historical allies, severing ties between Venezuela and Cuba, including blocking oil supplies and cracking down on shared intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Brazil and Colombia<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The presidents of Brazil and Colombia were vocal critics of Liberation Day tariffs and the Venezuela intervention. The diplomatic dialogue eased once dialogue opened: Lula is negotiating potential tariff reversal and Colombia\u2019s Petro abated pressure with the promise of a White House visit. \u00a0Despite commercial pressure and targeted sanctions, Brazil retains leverage. Albeit a net importer of U.S. goods and services, it depends less on U.S. purchases (~10% of exports) and supplies key products in American consumer baskets. Investors believe that the U.S. can be particularly interested in Brazil\u2019s rare earth deposits and reserves of critical minerals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1369\" height=\"154\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8899\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-3.png 1369w, https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-3-300x34.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-3-768x86.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1369px) 100vw, 1369px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">  Source: IVO Capital Partners<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Elections in \u201cDonroe Era\u201d<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition to the recent increase in geopolitical risks brought by \u201cDonroe doctrine\u201d, Latin America is also looking at a busy 2026 election calendar, highlighted by the Brazilian general elections. Market-favored administrations have emerged in Chile and Argentina, but leftist parties remain strong in other large economies. U.S. interventions may have influenced outcomes in Argentina and Honduras, while tariffs improved approval ratings in Brazil and Colombia, raising questions about overt actions\u2019 effectiveness ahead of elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Brazil:<\/strong> the presidential ballot is expected crystalize further around April, which could lead to market volatility. A close race is expected, with polls showing Lula favored over Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of the imprisoned ex-president. Another candidate from the right could enter the race or make a run for the main right-wing spot.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Colombia<\/strong>: Petro\u2019s party leads polls with senator Ivan Cepeda, but right-wing candidates like outsider Abelardo De La Espriella are considered competitive and even favorites by some political experts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Peru:<\/strong> Under an interim presidency after repeat impeachments, the presidential polls are still fairly fragmented, led by confrontational right-wing Rafael Lopez Aliaga and center-right Keiko Fujimori (daughter of former president Alberto, going to her fourth presidential bid).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Investment Opportunities<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new approach in Western Hemisphere relations reflects a broader stance against transnationalism, favoring bilateral agreements and defending national interests. In investors\u2019 minds, a continuation of a gradual trend can increase uncertainty and accelerate rotation from US risk assets. The appreciation of EM currencies vis-\u00e0-vis the dollar bodes well for corporates with hard currency debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although specific countries or sectors may be directly targeted like Venezuela, other countries like Mexico and Brazil face selective pressure and few are rewarded as Argentina. That uneven pressure creates meaningful dispersion in sovereign and corporate risk, demanding effective risk management while providing entry opportunities. Venezuela offers limited investment vehicles in the sovereign debt and PDVSA, which recently outperformed but still trade at distressed levels amid the protracted default and uncertainty around recovery values. The country\u2019s defaulted obligations trade at approximately $35-45 while the oil company\u2019s unsecured bonds range between $33-42. The corporate bond universe is more robust in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, where volatility to US actions have been more contained after the recovery from the Liberation Day selloff, and valuation been more driven by country- and\/or industry-specific factors. Brazilian corporates now lead the region with 7.6% yield post the recent selloff in HY, while Colombia has compressed to 7.3% and Mexico has been stable at 5.9%. For more details on Argentina (7.5%ytw), please refer to our note in October\/2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong><strong>Brazil spreads in 2025 were largely impacted by US policies and idiosyncratic cases<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1580\" height=\"369\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4.png 1580w, https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4-300x70.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4-768x179.png 768w, https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4-1536x359.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1580px) 100vw, 1580px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">  Source: IVO Capital Partners<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Geographical proximity and abundant natural resources place Latin America as a key region for US foreign policy. Even though specific targets may be subject to direct intervention or bilateral negotiations, the broader impacts of geopolitics will be important drivers for investment flows to or from the region. With a more unpredictable US government, higher volatility can be expected in both country-specific and global markets. This scenario favors the trend of a weaker dollar and adjustments of allocation based on newly perceived risks.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DISCLAIMER THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL ADVICE:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The information communicated reflects the opinion of IVO Capital Partners as of the date of this publication. The information contained in this document is not intended to be understood or interpreted as financial advice. It has been shared solely for informational purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and should not be construed as a solicitation, offer, invitation, or inducement to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. CONFIDENTIALITY: The information is strictly confidential and may not be reproduced, redistributed, disclosed, or transmitted to any other person, directly or indirectly. You may not copy, reproduce, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit any such content, nor distribute any part of this content over any network, including a local area network, sell or offer it for sale, or use this content to build any type of database.    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Executive Summary Background Initially branded the \u201cTrump Corollary,\u201d the administration later adopted the term \u201cDonroe Doctrine\u201d coined by the press. Predicated on \u201cAmerica First\u201d principles, Donroe seeks to prevent economic and political influence from other global powers\u2014particularly China, Russia, and Iran. The policy leverages economic mechanisms to shape political outcomes, advance government and corporate interests, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6651,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[103],"tags":[105],"class_list":["post-8890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pointsofview","tag-emerging-countries"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The &quot;Donroe Doctrine&quot;: towards a new cartography of Latin America? - IVO Capital Partners<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2026\/03\/05\/the-donroe-doctrine-towards-a-new-cartography-of-latin-america\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The &quot;Donroe Doctrine&quot;: towards a new cartography of Latin America? - IVO Capital Partners\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Executive Summary Background Initially branded the \u201cTrump Corollary,\u201d the administration later adopted the term \u201cDonroe Doctrine\u201d coined by the press. Predicated on \u201cAmerica First\u201d principles, Donroe seeks to prevent economic and political influence from other global powers\u2014particularly China, Russia, and Iran. 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Predicated on \u201cAmerica First\u201d principles, Donroe seeks to prevent economic and political influence from other global powers\u2014particularly China, Russia, and Iran. 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