{"id":9964,"date":"2026-06-11T12:59:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T12:59:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/2026\/06\/11\/colombia-and-peru-elections-are-market-catalysts-for-andean-credit\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T13:26:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:26:01","slug":"colombia-and-peru-elections-are-market-catalysts-for-andean-credit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2026\/06\/11\/colombia-and-peru-elections-are-market-catalysts-for-andean-credit\/","title":{"rendered":"Colombia and Peru: Elections as Market Catalysts for Andean Credit"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Overview<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The upcoming electoral cycles in Colombia and Peru increases political uncertainty and represent a key catalyst for Andean credit markets, but the repricing extent differs due to contrasts in macroeconomic fundamentals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In Colombia, the key concern is fiscal vulnerability, with markets closely focused on debt sustainability and fiscal discipline. In Peru, the macroeconomic framework remains stronger, making governability and political stability the key focus rather than immediate fiscal deterioration.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At the corporate level, the environment reinforces the importance of selectivity. We prefer issuers supported by structural sector dynamics and external drivers rather than by domestic political conditions, particularly in energy, infrastructure and commodity-related sectors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Macroeconomic implications<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Colombia, the main market concern remains fiscal trajectory. A high fiscal deficit and rising public debt led to a recent sovereign downgrade by rating agencies, increasing the country\u2019s vulnerability to a deterioration in investor sentiment. In Peru, political uncertainty remains elevated, but the sovereign is anchored in a stronger macroeconomic framework, supported by moderate public debt, a contained fiscal deficit and an investment-grade sovereign rating. Therefore, the key issue at focus in the upcoming Peruvian elections is less an immediate macroeconomic deterioration than governability and coalition-building capacity. Across both countries, we favor issuers whose credit fundamentals are supported by sectoral or global dynamics rather than domestic political developments, particularly in energy, liquefied natural gas infrastructure and gold mining. The current environment therefore reinforces a selective approach within corporate credit, with increasing differentiation between issuers closely correlated with sovereign risk and those exposed to structural trends extending beyond the electoral cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Indicator (2026E)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Colombia<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Peru<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Real GDP growth<\/td><td>2.5%<\/td><td>2.9%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inflation<\/td><td>5.8%<\/td><td>2.6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fiscal deficit \/ GDP<\/td><td>6.7%<\/td><td>2.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Current Account \/ GDP<\/td><td>-2.7%<\/td><td>1.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public debt \/ GDP<\/td><td>62%<\/td><td>32%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sovereign rating<\/td><td>BB- \/ Baa3 \/ BB<\/td><td>BBB- \/ Baa1 \/ BBB-<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Policy rate<\/td><td>12.1%<\/td><td>4.2%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Colombia: a risk premium dominated by fiscal concerns<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Colombia enters the presidential election with a more fragile macroeconomic position than Peru. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach around 6.7% of GDP in 2026, while public debt is estimated at nearly 62% of GDP. This trajectory has already weighed on sovereign risk perception, as illustrated by S&amp;P\u2019s downgrade in April 2026, and by Moody\u2019 and Fitch in 2025. Against this backdrop, the focus is on the next government\u2019s ability to restore a credible fiscal path, understanding that meaningful adjustment would likely require reforms that may be difficult to implement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Polls suggest that Iv\u00e1n Cepeda, the Pacto Hist\u00f3rico candidate and designated successor to outgoing President Gustavo Petro, should lead the first round on May 31<sup>st<\/sup> without securing an outright majority. Investor attention is therefore focused on the second-round configuration and on the profile of the candidate who may face Cepeda. The competition seems among opposition candidates Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella, amid an environment where voter concerns veer towards security, healthcare and corruption. The showing of the challenger in the first round and the perceived strength in the aforementioned matters should support market expectations around the opposition\u2019s odds in the expected runoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An outcome perceived as supportive of faster fiscal adjustment could improve investor sentiment and contribute to spread tightening. Conversely, political continuity associated with insufficient fiscal adjustments could lead to wider risk premia. This asymmetry justifies a cautious stance on Colombian issuers most closely correlated with the sovereign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We therefore continue to favor credits whose fundamentals are more closely linked to sector-specific drivers than to domestic political developments. Energy and thermal utilities remain particularly interesting, as they benefit from global energy price dynamics and potential demand for backup power generation in a context of climate stress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Peru: elevated political risk, but a stronger macroeconomic anchor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peru remains marked by significant institutional instability: since 2016, the country has had six presidents. This political volatility continues to weigh on investor visibility. However, the country\u2019s macroeconomic profile remains stronger than Colombia\u2019s, with public debt estimated at around 32% of GDP, a fiscal deficit limited to 2.3% of GDP and an investment-grade sovereign rating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The presidential election pits Keiko Fujimori against Roberto S\u00e1nchez in a second round scheduled for 7 June. Fujimori enters her fourth attempt in a more favorable position than in previous elections, with rejection rates below historical levels. S\u00e1nchez, for his part, benefits from an anti-establishment positioning and political links to Pedro Castillo, who narrowly defeated Fujimori in 2021 before being removed from office the following year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For markets, the key issue goes beyond the identity of the next president. Governability will be decisive, particularly with the reintroduction of a bicameral Congress and a 60-seat Senate. The Senate\u2019s composition doesn\u2019t allow any bloc to command the necessary thresholds to govern without compromise. Centrists could therefore play a pivotal role in passing reforms, maintaining institutional stability and preserving fiscal discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This complex political framework probably limits the scope for deep reforms, but it also reduces the risk of radical economic shifts without broad parliamentary support. For bond investors, this is an important factor, as stability and predictability in the economic framework are generally valued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the economic front, Peru\u2019s outlook remains relatively constructive. Growth should be supported by metal prices, infrastructure spending and still-solid employment and income indicators. Key risks to monitor include the potential impact of a more severe El Ni\u00f1o episode on growth and inflation, as well as the authorities\u2019 ability to keep the fiscal deficit close to target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"658\" height=\"245\" src=\"blob:https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/cdc507e1-89fe-4c44-a92f-864221b0582c\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: J.P. Morgan CEMBI BD, z-spread to worst.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Natural resources: focusing on strategic assets and global drivers<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Colombia and Peru offer investment opportunities in sectors linked to natural resources and national strategic assets. This approach lies at the heart of our long-standing investment philosophy in emerging market debt: identifying companies whose cash flows are supported by essential assets, strong competitive positions or global dynamics that are less dependent on the domestic political cycle. In Peru, liquefied natural gas infrastructure offers an attractive profile. With a yield of around 7.0% and a z-spread close to 358 basis points, these credits benefit from sustained global demand for LNG. In an environment marked by geopolitical tensions and concerns over security of supply, assets located outside the main conflict zones may benefit from a structural premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peru is also a major producer of base and precious metals. In a context of persistent geopolitical tensions and still elevated gold prices, select miners offer attractive yields, around 9.8%, while relying on an investment thesis that is less directly tied to the electoral outcome. In Colombia, energy and thermal utility credits may benefit from higher global energy prices and the need for backup power generation. Electoral volatility could create attractive entry points in issuers whose fundamentals remain solid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We remain more cautious, however, on Colombian companies with high sovereign correlation, given the potentially unfavorable asymmetry in the event of a deterioration in market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DISCLAIMER \u2013 THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL ADVICE:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The information provided reflects the opinion of IVO Capital Partners at the date of this publication. The information contained in this document is not intended to be understood or interpreted as financial advice. It is shared for informational purposes only, does not constitute advertising, and should not be construed as a solicitation, offer, invitation, or inducement to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: The information herein is strictly confidential and may not be reproduced, redistributed, disclosed, or transmitted to any other person, directly or indirectly. You may not copy, reproduce, distribute, publish, display, modify, create derivative works from, transmit, or exploit this content in any manner, nor distribute any portion of it over a network, including a local network, sell or offer it for sale, or use it to construct any kind of database.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overview Macroeconomic implications In Colombia, the main market concern remains fiscal trajectory. A high fiscal deficit and rising public debt led to a recent sovereign downgrade by rating agencies, increasing the country\u2019s vulnerability to a deterioration in investor sentiment. In Peru, political uncertainty remains elevated, but the sovereign is anchored in a stronger macroeconomic framework, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[103,1],"tags":[105],"class_list":["post-9964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pointsofview","category-not-categorized","tag-emerging-countries"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Colombia and Peru: Elections as Market Catalysts for Andean Credit - IVO Capital Partners<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ivocapital.com\/en\/2026\/06\/11\/colombia-and-peru-elections-are-market-catalysts-for-andean-credit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Colombia and Peru: Elections as Market Catalysts for Andean Credit - IVO Capital Partners\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Overview Macroeconomic implications In Colombia, the main market concern remains fiscal trajectory. 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