Uzbekistan – The New Silk Road: Gold, Reforms, and Opportunities
A frontier market driven by reforms, with improving fundamentals Since 2016, the country has been engaged in a sweeping reform program to overhaul its macroeconomic framework and governance standards. Since then, the economy has grown by an average of 5.8% per year, supported by strong domestic demand, steady investment flows, and increased integration into the […]
Colombia and Peru: Elections as Market Catalysts for Andean Credit
Overview Macroeconomic implications In Colombia, the main market concern remains fiscal trajectory. A high fiscal deficit and rising public debt led to a recent sovereign downgrade by rating agencies, increasing the country’s vulnerability to a deterioration in investor sentiment. In Peru, political uncertainty remains elevated, but the sovereign is anchored in a stronger macroeconomic framework, […]
Hormuz: when geopolitics reshuffles the energy asset map
Energy: From Market Shock to the re-ranking of projects and capital Summary Hormuz is not merely a price shock: it is a supply security stress test. When geopolitical risk materializes, decision-makers think in terms of robustness, and this can re-rank projects and redistribute capex. Origin risk is likely to become durably embedded in investment decisions. […]
The “Donroe Doctrine”: towards a new cartography of Latin America?
Executive Summary Background Initially branded the “Trump Corollary,” the administration later adopted the term “Donroe Doctrine” coined by the press. Predicated on “America First” principles, Donroe seeks to prevent economic and political influence from other global powers—particularly China, Russia, and Iran. The policy leverages economic mechanisms to shape political outcomes, advance government and corporate interests, […]
The postal code effect or the mispricing of emerging markets: a field of opportunities hidden by the sovereign ceiling
The postal code effect or the mispricing of emerging markets: a field of opportunities hidden by the sovereign ceiling Identifying opportunities under the ceiling: Emerging market mispricing caused by the sovereign ceiling “Identifying and exploiting market dislocations caused by sovereign rating caps provides a distinct source of alpha and illustrates the type of market inefficiency […]